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How big will GTA VI be? The storage nobody is preparing for

Here is a question few people ask until it is too late: do you have enough space on your console? GTA VI pre-load begins on 12 November, and if your plan is to start deleting games that day, you are already too late. Let us look at the numbers.
First, the important part: Rockstar has not published a file size for GTA VI. Not a single gigabyte. Every figure you see is an estimate, and plenty of sites present them as confirmed. They are not.
The estimates with some reasoning behind them: 150–180 GB for the base install on PS5 and Xbox Series X, and 200–250 GB once a day-one patch lands. For the Series S a reduced build of around 110–140 GB is expected, thanks to lower-resolution textures. The basis is comparison with similar games and the scale of the map. Treat this as a rough order of magnitude, not a number.
For comparison: the biggest games of recent years sit in exactly this range. God of War Ragnarök is over 190 GB, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare over 175 GB, Final Fantasy XVI over 170 GB, S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2 over 160 GB, Baldur's Gate 3 over 150 GB and Red Dead Redemption 2 between 105 and 150 GB. GTA VI will in all likelihood land at the upper end of that group.
It is worth putting this in perspective. GTA V required an 8 GB install on PS3 and Xbox 360 in 2013. The PC version was around 65 GB in 2015 and grew to 105–110 GB after a decade of GTA Online updates. If GTA VI starts at 200 GB and gets the same treatment over the next ten years, ending up at 300 GB or more is not far-fetched.
How much space do you actually have? This is where people get a surprise. A PS5 with an 825 GB drive gives you roughly 667 GB usable. A PS5 Slim with 1 TB gives around 848 GB. An Xbox Series X with 1 TB gives about 800 GB. An Xbox Series S with 512 GB gives only around 360 GB. The PS5 Pro has 2 TB and is the one machine that will not feel this at all.
On a 512 GB Series S, GTA VI would therefore take well over half the drive. That is a real problem, not a theoretical one. If you own that machine you need either an expansion card or to clear out almost everything else before 12 November.
The fix for PlayStation: an M.2 SSD. Sony's requirements are specific — PCIe 4.0 ×4, NVMe, at least 5,500 MB/s read speed, capacity between 250 GB and 8 TB, maximum dimensions of 110 × 25 × 11.25 mm, and a heatsink is mandatory. Installation takes five minutes and one screwdriver.
Which drive? The WD Black SN850X is the most commonly recommended: the 2 TB version at around 124 dollars with 7,300 MB/s read speeds, and the 4 TB version at around 249 dollars. The Samsung 990 Pro is comparable but currently priced far higher. The reason is the same one behind the console price increases: a memory shortage driven by datacentre demand. Check prices right before you buy, because they are moving fast.
The calculation worth looking at: a PS5 with drive at 649.99 dollars plus an SN850X at 124 dollars gives you more total storage than a PS5 Pro at 899.99 dollars — for 127 dollars less. If you were weighing those two routes against each other, this is the strongest argument in the whole discussion.
For Xbox the path is different: Microsoft supports only its own expansion cards, which cost more than generic M.2 drives. You can store games on an ordinary USB drive but you cannot play Series X|S titles from one.
The practical advice: check your free space now, not on 12 November. If you have less than 250 GB free, you are at risk. A drive costs less than frantically deleting your library the night before launch.
Sources: Tom's Hardware, TechRadar, Digital Trends, PC Game Check, GTA BOOM, gta6info.org, Forbes and Engadget. All GTA VI size figures are estimates; Rockstar has published no official number.